Landscape Conservation Forecasting for Data-Poor at-Risk Species on Western Public Lands, United States

Managing vast federal public lands governed by multiple land use policies creates challenges when demographic data on at-risk species are lacking. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management Cedar City Field Office used this project in the Black Mountains (Utah) to inform vegetation management supporting greater sage-grouse and Utah prairie dog planning. Ecological systems were mapped from satellite remote sensing imagery model habitat suitability under two levels activity (custodial, preferred) climate scenarios for historic global circulation models. Spatial state-and-transition models ecological simulated all six up 60 years while coupled with expert-developed indices. All at least moderately departed reference conditions 2012, whereas was 50.5% 48.4% dog, respectively. actions replaced non-native annual grasslands perennial grasses, removed conifers, controlled exotic forbs. drier most affected departure 30 only. Different climates influenced spatial patterns suitability, but nonspatial values unchanged. Climate impacts fire, succession, restoration explain many results. Front-loading is predicted benefit future climate.